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2011 A’s Predictions: Starting Pitching (The “Perfect” Rotation)

Brett AndersonA lot of demand has been put on the A’s starting pitching staff for this year. They had the best ERA in the AL last season with 3.47, the most quality starts 103, a perfect game, and are expected to improve on all these number because their “veteran” pitcher is only 27, and the average age of Cahill, Anderson, and Gonzalez is only 23 years old.

Side note for all the haters of the quality start stat: Yes, you only need to pitch 6 innings and give up 3 earned runs or less to qualify for a quality start. And I realize if you pitch a 6 innings giving up 3 runs, your ERA is 4.50. But how many times does that happen exactly? Bill James (the Godfather of baseball stats) estimated in 1987 in his Baseball Abstract that the average ERA of a quality start was less than 3.20. This was later confirmed in the mid-1990s. A computer analysis study of all the quality starts recorded from 1984-1991 found the average ERA in quality starts is 1.91. Since the average number of runs scored per game over the past five seasons is between 4.61 – 4.82…you’re teams winning percentage drastically increases when the starting pitcher has a quality start.

With Cahill slated as the number 1 pitcher this year, how will the rest of the rotation pan out? Here are some predictions.

1. Trevor Cahill

Billy Beane calls him the “baby-faced assassin.” Only 24 years old, and probably hasn’t shaved a day in his life, Cahill dominated the second half of the season after coming off an injury and is rightly placed as the A’s #1 pitcher. Cahill went 18-8 in 30 starts with a 2.97 ERA (top 5 starters in the AL) and was an outside discussion for Cy Young. Cahill doesn’t overpower hitters, he throws batters off balance by mixing in change-ups with a very deceptive sinker. Some argue Cahill had a fluke year after he had to battle Gio Gonzales for the 5th spot in the rotation last spring. With rumors circulating the A’s will sign Cahill through his arbitration years (2015), this year will determine if Cahill was a one year wonder, or a top tier starter for years to come in Oakland.

Prediction:

  • 16 – 10
  • 3.10 ERA
  • 222 IP
  • 180 K
  • 72 BB

2. Brett Anderson

Anderson finished 6th in the Rookie of the year voting in 2008 (Andrew Bailey won) with an 11-11 record, 4.06 ERA, and a complete game shutout domination at Yankee Stadium. Sky was the limit for Anderson going into last season as a young arm looking for a breakout year…until he fell into the string of injuries that plagued the entire A’s team. Anderson never put together a steady stream of starts, going off and on the DL all season, but he did put together a 7-6 record with a 2.80 ERA in 19 starts. Even better, he seemed to improve on his control posting a 1.8 BB/9.

Anderson (like Gio) has the potential to become the ace of the staff. He has a very good fastball and even better slider. Can Anderson stay healthy this season and put up numbers he’s capable of?

Predictions:

  • 18 – 9
  • 2.95 ERA
  • 200 IP
  • 165 K
  • 46 BB

3. Gio Gonzalez

Is it bad the two guys battling for the 5th rotation spot in Spring last season are the 1-3 (maybe even 1-2) starters this season? Nope, don’t care. Gio (25 years old) has improved every season he’s been in the big leagues.

 

2008

2009

2010
Wins

1

6

15
ERA

7.68

5.75

3.23
BB/9

3.6

5.1

4.1

 

And he’s continued to improve this Spring. In his first 21 innings, he has 25 K, 8 BB, 0.84 WHIP, and 2.14 ERA. I don’t like to read too much into Spring stats, but the fact he is continuing to keep his walk total down (the 1 flaw last season), Gio could easily become the A’s ace this season.

Gio is upset about losing the Friday night black uniforms this year though. His favorite shirt color is black and he always seemed to pitch well in those jerseys…hopefully his second favorite color is old school traffic light yellow.

Predictions:

  • 21 – 8
  • 2.90 ERA
  • 226 IP
  • 240 K
  • 68 BB

 

4. Dallas Braden

How many rotations have 3 lefties in a row? I couldn’t find any. Although Brandon McCarthy is the 5 starter, Geren might move McCarthy to the 4 spot and Braden to 5. Geren loves his L/L, R/R match ups so I don’t think he’d like the possibility of 3 lefties starting a series.

Braden’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch live. He works fast, makes the hitter put the ball in play for the defense, and pounds the strike zone with 4 different pitches while changing speeds. He won’t overpower any major league lineup, but if teams don’t prepare and have an off day, he becomes very difficult to hit (“perfect” example: May 9th 2010 vs. Tampa Bay). Another example, Braden had 5 complete games last year in 30 starts! If you watched him pitch live, there was over a 16% chance you would see a complete game.

Braden should have another consistent year staying around .500 and I say only 2 complete games.

Predictions:

  • 14 – 13
  • 3.70 ERA
  • 180 IP
  • 100K
  • 38 BB

5. Brandon McCarthy

McCarthy won the 5th spot in the rotation this spring by beating out Tyson Ross, Josh Outman, Bobby Cramer, and Rich Harden. If there is a question mark in the pitching staff this season, it’s the 5th starter. Every candidate has proved they have the ability to pitch in the major league level, but with the exception of Harden, no one has put together a full season’s worth of work. Ross, Outman, and Cramer only have only 22 career starts between all of them, and McCarthy has 56 starts spread over 5 seasons. With Harden out with a back injury (expected return late April) McCarthy has the opportunity to keep the starting position with a few good outings in April. If he doesn’t continue his good pitching performance fromn this spring (1-1, 4.50 ERA, 1BB in 3 starts), Harden will step in and take over the last spot in the rotation.

Predictions:

McCarthy

  • 1-3 in 5 starts in April
    4.70 ERA

Harden

  • 10-8 in 26 starts
  • 3.89 ERA

Even with the awful bomb of a season of Ben Sheets and the injury to Justin Duchscherer, the A’s starters logged 65 wins last year. With a seemingly healthy starting rotation (knock on wood with fingers crossed while throwing salt over my shoulder), I’m predicting the A’s starters log 82 wins this year…which is a ton. The most wins I could find by a starting rotation past 20 years was the 1998 Atlanta Braves starters that logged 94 wins (the team won 106 games that year). I’m predicting the A’s win the division with 93 wins, so 82 wins by the rotation is around the ballpark needed to reclaim the AL West. BASEBALL!!

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