Bay Area Bias

2011 A’s Predictions: Starting Lineup

Opening Day is 7 days away! Time for fans of every team to start making predictions about how their club made enough off season moves and improvements to make the World Series in 2011.

During the offseason, the A’s lost: Jack Cust, Travis Buck, Eric Chavez, Rajai Davis, Gabe Gross, Henry Rodriguez, Ben Sheets, and Vin Mazzaro.

In returned, they gained: Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui, Rich Harden, David Dejesus, Brandon McCarthy, and minor leaguers Trystan Magnusun and Daniel Farquhar.

Strengths in 2010

  • Pitching
  • Speed
  • Defense

Weakness in 2010

  • Everything offensively
  • Injuries

Beane’s goal before the offseason was to obviously upgrade the offense, but was very adamant about not sacrificing the defense or trading the young pitching. All-in-all, he completed what he set out to do. Dejesus is just as good defensively as Davis but a much better hitter; Willingham will bring more homeruns and can play a solid outfield; and Matsui is a proven veteran DH that can bring stability to the middle of the lineup. And most importantly, he did not sacrifice Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, or Michael Choice.

Did Beane upgrade the offense enough to keep up with Texas? Let’s see…

Opening Day lineup:

1) Coco Crisp – CF

  • .280BA
  • 10HR
  • 60RBI
  • 60SB

Crisp can put up very impressive numbers when healthy. He missed significant time due to injury last year on two occasions and still made a great impact on offense. And yes, I did put 60 stolen bases. Crisp stole 32 bases and was thrown out 3 times in 75 games last year. After his 2nd year of working with Rickey Henderson in the off-season, he will have the green light all year and take advantage of it.

2) Daric Barton – 1B

  • .298BA
  • 12HR
  • 59RBI
  • 105BB (Gold Glove candidate)

This year is Daric Barton’s coming out party. Look at his numbers last year mostly overlooked for first basemen: .393OBP (5th AL), 265 times on base (2nd AL), 110 BB (1st AL), 1404 put-outs at 1B (1st AL), 10.0 range factor/9 innings as 1B (1st in AL). If you read Buster Olney’s blog during the season, Daric is always on the top 5 for his “pitches most seen per at-bat” grid. He is patient at the plate, never swings at bad pitches, and a great #2 hitter for this lineup. Homerun numbers are down for a typical first baseman, but he makes up for it in other areas. Sportswriters have admitted he was overlooked for the Gold Glove last year, he won’t be this year.

3) David Dejesus – RF

  • .295BA
  • 8HR
  • 85RBI

Dejesus is not a normal number three hitter, and he will be asked to fill the position by the A’s for the first time in his career. He will not hit homeruns or have a staggering number of RBI’s, but he hits for average and uses all sides of the field. The A’s have not had a consistent number 3 hitter for awhile. With Dejesus’ proven hitting for average ability in Kansas City, A’s fans are hoping he can bring some much needed hits in the middle of the lineup.

4) Josh Willingham – LF

  • .265BA
  • 24HR
  • 92RBI
  • 110SO

Willingham is pretty unknown to the Bay Area. Unfortunately for A’s fans, he reminds me of a very good defensive Jack Cust. In his 3 full seasons with the Marlins and Nationals, he averaged over 23 homeruns but also struck out 122 times in 2007. In the past 4 years, many clean up hitters have been brought to the Coliseum to produce homeruns, but only leave with career low numbers. Willingham seems to fit that “one year rental” tag the A’s are known for. With Michael Taylor, Chris Carter, and Michael Choice almost big league ready, if Willingham doesn’t produce early, he could be in a new uniform come July.

5) Hideki Matsui – DH

  • .275BA
  • 19HR
  • 95RBI
  • 35-2B

Godzilla! Matsui was signed for one reason: RBIs…ok, maybe 3 reasons: RBIs, attendance, and media coverage. Already a big hit with the Japanese community and media, look for Matsui to have a big year with the team he grew up idolizing in Japan. Matsui’s favorite player? – Rickey Henderson. His favorite players to watch hit? – McGwire and Canseco. No longer a huge homerun threat, Godzilla is a great gap-to-gap hitter which will play to his favor in the large outfield of the Coliseum which will lead to an increase in doubles and RBIs from last year.

6) Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3B

  • .262BA
  • 20HR
  • 81RBI

After Beane tried several times to upgrade at 3rd base this offseason, Kouzmanoff is again in the A’s lineup. There is good news though, Kouzmanoff posted career lows in almost every offense and defensive category last year, so the worst is over, right? I hope so, because those are generous predictions and I’m not very confident of them. Kouzzzzzzz is the x-factor in the lineup this year. Another repeat of 2010 will cause struggles for the A’s to score runs and possibly put Kouzmanoff on the bench; however, if he can get back to the 20plus HR 80RBI he is capable of, the A’s will be a major offensive force in the AL West. Kouzmanoff is capable of taking the 3 spot from Dejesus, if he gets off to a good start in April.

7) Kurt Suzuki – C

  • .265BA
  • 13HR
  • 75RBI

I love Suzuki in the 7 spot. He’s not a huge offensive threat, but a major improvement over previous catcher Jason Kendall. He batted in the 2-3-4-5 spots last year and will be much more comfortable in the 7 spot this year. Oakland already had the best pitching staff in the AL last year with a 3.56 ERA, but they were even better with Suzuki behind the plate posting a 3.31 when he starts.

8) Mark Ellis – 2B

  • .265BA
  • 7HR
  • 42RBI

Ellis had an uncharacteristically high batting average last season. A career .268 average, Ellis was able to knock off a few long hitting streaks last season and hit .291. The last time his average was that high was 2005 when he hit .316. In 2006 though, he hit only .249. Throughout his career, it seems Ellis has had up and down years on offense. He has always been terrific on defense, but I don’t think he can keep his average that high again for consecutive seasons.

9) Cliff Pennington – SS

  • .270BA
  • 5HR
  • 45RBI
  • 35SB (possible Gold Glove candidate)

Pennington was on fire the part of the season in 2010. In April and May, Pennington flirted with .300 and nearly hit for the cycle in a game. He took over the leadoff spot when Crisp was injured and sparked the A’s offense as much as he could. During the middle to late half of the season, Pennington slumped hard. Dropped his average down to .250 and didn’t have the same spark as the beginning of the year. Since 2010 was his first season as the regular shortstop, slumping in the middle of the year is to be expected so look for more offensive consistency this year. Pennington has the talent to be considered for a Gold Glove. His range factor was the highest in the MLB among shortstops, but his zone rating was the lowest in the AL. Scouts rave about his ability to get to balls in the hole and he turned multiple top 10 plays with Ellis, but he struggled at times on routine throws to 1st (thankfully Barton’s there).

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