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A Mid-Season Report

It was week nine of the NFL season, and since the 49ers have played half their games and were on bye last week, what better time to evaluate how their season is going so far? When I wrote what to expect from them before the season started I mentioned three reasons why members of the media expected a drop in performance and why I thought none of those reasons would be a factor. So far I have been right that none of them would cost the Niners games, although I was incorrect on how the team would avoid those problems.

The first thing I mentioned was that Super Bowl losers always have rough follow up seasons. I think the Niners have showed that playing deep into the playoffs two years in a row and losing the big game last season has not caused any kind of a “hangover”. They are experiencing a lot of injuries which could be a result of all the extra games they have played, but it seems that the entire NFL is having an increase in injuries. Also, the 49ers have so much depth that even when they are forced to play a fourth string Defensive Tackle, it does not seem to cause much of a drop off on the field.

The next thing I discussed was the loss of key players, starting with Dashon Goldson, who is now in Tampa Bay. I would argue that Eric Reid is completely outplaying him at this point in the season. Not only has he, as a rookie, been every bit as great against the run as Goldson but he doesn’t get any of the personal foul penalties that Goldson keeps accumulating hurting his defense. Also, unless I completely missed it, I have not seen Reid get beat by the deep ball like Goldson still falls victim to. I questioned at draft time whether or not it was worth trading up to get Reid or if they should have stayed put and taken the best Safety available at #31 since it was a deep position. Reid has clearly been worth the picks they gave up and then some.

The other major personnel question mark was at Wide Receiver. When the season started I thought the Niners receivers would not be as bad people were expecting because they would have some guys step up and surprise the league. Sadly I was wrong. Anquan Boldin did step in and replace Michael Crabtree as Kaepernick’s primary target making the catches that move the chains like he has his entire career. Unfortunately no one else has stepped up. AJ Jenkins was traded after just two games; Quinton Patton, who I had high expectations for, got hurt after four games and has been a non-factor; and Kyle Williams is just Kyle Williams. He can barely catch a punt so how is he expected to be the teams #2 receiver and catch the rockets that Kap throws? Bruce Miller, the teams Full Back, has more catches and more yards than any wide receiver (except Boldin of course) with 13 for 158. The second highest by a Wide Receiver? Kyle Williams with 11 catches for 108 yards, which is an average of 1.3 catches for 13.5 yards a game. Let me repeat that – the #2 wide receiver on the team averages 1 catch for 13 yards A GAME. Meanwhile the Broncos have three receivers on pace for over 1,000 yards. Luckily this has not hurt the team at all. Between Boldin and TE Vernon Davis, enough plays are being made downfield and the run game keeps the ball moving most of the time while eating up the clock. This is still a power run offense more reliant on the legs of Frank Gore than Kaepernick’s arm. Some good news is that Mario Manningham should join the team right after the bye this week and Michael Crabtree hopefully by mid-November.

The final reason for a drop off was Kaepernick having a sophomore slump. Kap has not been as dominant and electrifying this season as many Niner fans expected, but he is still the best Quarterback this team has had in a decade. Even in games where he is playing poorly and not having a major impact, he still has the big play ability that Alex Smith never had. The offense could be sputtering with nothing happening in the passing game but then a big gain on a swing pass to Miller or a 40 yard touchdown pass to Davis and the offense comes to life. I blame part of the slump Kap had early in the season on Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman. Early on it looked like he was trying too hard to have the offense be explosive with Kaps big arm and trying to be “fancy” for lack of a better word. Has any team had to blow time outs to avoid a delay of game as the Niners have? They would not let Kap run, hardly using Gore as well, while trying to pass when there are not any receivers worth throwing too. For the last month, Kap has not been throwing as often each game but he is completing more of his passes with a much better QB Rating. He also seems to tuck the ball and run more often which is always a good thing with his scrambling ability. The offense appears to have returned to its roots with running first. Instead of passing, which kept leading to 2nd and long, they’re now using the pass primarily to set up play action. It clearly has worked since the team has won five straight games, scoring over 30 points in each game for the first time since the 1990’s. I think Kap will be more productive in the second half of the season, but even if he plays exactly the way he has the first eight, it is more than enough for the team to keep winning and make the playoffs.

The reason I thought the team to experience some rough patches was because of what looked like a tough schedule. If I told you in week one that the Niners would face the Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Texans and Rams (as well as the Cardinals, Titans, and Jaguars but no one before the season or now really fears them) and that at the bye they would be 6-2 against those teams would you have been happy? Of course you would have, and you should be. The Niners are in a great spot. Yes the losses to the Seahawks and Colts were really ugly and looked bad when they happened. However, the Seahawks are one of the top three teams in the NFL and their only loss is to the Colts, who have also beat the Niners, Seahawks and Broncos (their only loss as well). The Niners are beating the teams they are supposed to, which isn’t a given in the NFL, and their losses are to elite teams, where there is nothing to be ashamed of. Going forward they play two really tough teams in the Saints and the Seahawks but the rest of the schedule looks easy at the moment. The Panthers, Redskins, Buccaneers, Falcons, Rams and Cardinals are all .500 or worse. The Niners should go at least 6-2 again to finish the year and if they beat the Seahawks at home then they could even close it out 7-1. Before the season I thought they would go 3-3 in the NFC West and finish 10-6. But now it looks like they will probably go 4-2 in the West and finish the season 12-4, at worst 11-5. Unfortunately I still think the Seahawks will win the division even if the Niners go 12-4, and the Niners would be a wild card team with the #5 seed. But the Seahawks only have a one game lead (they should be even if not for the worst Offensive Coordinator in the NFL Brian Schottenheimer blowing the game last Monday for the Rams) and the Niners can easily catch up, especially if they can beat the Seahawks at home. The one thing I do not want is to have the Niners face the Seahawks in Seattle for the playoffs.

To summarize, if you are a 49er fan, you should be very happy with how the team is playing and with their record midway through the season. There is no reason to expect a regression in the second half, things should only get better with the talent that is coming off of the injury list. Not just the Wide Receiver help either, with Aldon Smith rejoining the team and Tank Carradine coming off IR to help the Defensive Line, an already stellar defense is only going to get better. The last half of the season will see a couple more losses but there is no longer any reason to doubt that the 49ers are a legit Super Bowl contender (I know no one reading this ever did) and one of the top five teams in the NFL.

Also, my preseason prediction of the Falcons and Texans in the Super Bowl is looking terrible at the moment. Both teams are 2-5 and have no chance at making a playoff push. The Falcons have too many injuries and the Texans have no worthwhile Quarterback. If I had to make a new prediction it would be the Colts from the AFC, and while my heart wants to pick the 49ers for the NFC, my brain is saying the Seahawks. Especially if they lock up the top seed and have home field advantage for the entire playoffs.

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