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Great Expectations: A preview of the 2013 49ers season

What you expect from the Niners this season seems to be based on whether you are an actual fan of the team or a member of sports media. Most fans are very high on the team, for very good reasons, and expect a team that is loaded with talent and well coached to continue the progression of the last two years: a 2011 NFC Championship loss, a 2012 NFC Championship win and subsequent Super Bowl loss, to a hopeful 2013 Super Bowl win. In the media it seems to be trendy to go against the Niners and lower the expectations. There was even a writer on Twitter say they would only finish third in the division and miss the playoffs.

Generally, there are three reasons given for taking a step back, all of which I think are BS. First is that the notion that as the Super Bowl loser, they are destined to fall back to the pack of mediocrity that most losing Super Bowl teams experience. There is some statistical data to support this but if you look closely it shouldn’t be much of a shock. There always seems to be a surprise team in the Super Bowl and those teams usually lose, both in the Super Bowl and the following season. As a surprise team that just got hot at the right moment, they are usually not a yearly contender so a dip the following year isn’t a surprise. Off the top of my head did anyone really think that the 1997 Patriots, 1999 Falcons, 2001 Giants, 2004 Panthers, or 2007 Bears were anything more than one hit wonders? I question the sanity of anyone who thinks the 2012 Niners fall into that group. This team is more like the Bills in the early 1990’s or the Patriots of the last few years who can easily shrug off the disappointment of a Super Bowl loss and be contenders the next year without any regression.

Next, people harp on the players that the 49ers lost, especially the Crabtree injury and the Niners apparent lack of talent at the wide-receiver position. They lost Dashon Goldson, who actually took a step back from his amazing 2011 season. Not giving Goldson the big money like Tampa Bay did will help the 49ers retain and sign key players that become free agents after next season. Replacing Goldson with Eric Reid was great as he is a heavy hitter that plays the run well but needs work against the pass. This sounds exactly like Goldson, and while Reid won’t be immediately as good as Goldson was, I don’t believe it will be as big a drop off as many expect.

Anquan Boldin leaving the Dark Side to join the 49ers

I do see the loss of Delanie Walker being brought up a lot like he was some major part of the offense: all 21 catches for 344 yards with 3 TD’s and I can’t remember how many drops. Vance McDonald can easily be as productive. Finally we get to the constant harping on the loss of Crabtree and the weak receiving core. Has anyone bother to look at the Niners roster from 2011 or 2012 before bashing this year’s collection of receivers? Behind Crabtree’s 85 catches, 1,100 yards, and 9 TD’s last season, the next productive receivers were Randy Moss and Mario Manningham who both had under 450 yards and a combined 4 TD’s. Anquan Boldin will easily make up the lost production from Crabtree despite not having 1,000+ receiving yard season in 3 years. No 49er has had 1,000 receiving yards since Terrell Owens in 2003 prior to last season but that didn’t hurt the team in 2011. And lets not act like Crabtree is out for the entire season. If he misses eight games and the bye week, then he is back in week ten for the remaining half of the season and playoffs with Boldin. There is also Mario Manningham, who should be back after 6 games. I also think Quinton Patton is going to surprise a lot of people and be a solid #2 option. Besides, this is a run first team with Gore, Hunter, James, and Kaepernick so they will continue to pound teams into submission with much success using play-action.

The final knock is that Colin Kaepernick will regress or even get hurt because he runs too much and then the team will derail. Anyone who claims this obviously did not watch any Niner football before the Super Bowl last season. Kaepernick is a very smart runner. This isn’t a 6’0 210lb Michael Vick who keeps getting tackled and hurt. This is a 6’5 230lb physical freak who NEVER GOT HIT. He either ran out of bounds or slid and avoided contact on every single run he made. He is a smarter runner than Vick or RG3 and he is way bigger than both. Colin and Cam Newton are the same size and did you ever notice that Newton hasn’t gotten hurt despite running more than any other QB for 2 years in a row now? Cam gets hit a ton, too. There is also no reason to expect a regression from Kaepernick. No one says the same about Luck, RG3, or Wilson so why do I keep hearing it about Kaepernick? These are the same people that didn’t even realize that Kaepernick was not a rookie last season like the other three were so he has more time in the NFL. That’s more practice time, film dissection, and an extra year getting coached in the NFL than the others. In my opinion he is the least likely to regress.

The other argument I hear is that “defenses weren’t used to him last year and had no tape so they will figure him out now and they will stop the Read Option”. Do they really think that is going to stop him from being effective? The 49rs only ran the Read Option on FIVE PERCENT of their offensive plays. Figure it out: Kaepernick will beat you on the other 95% of the plays he runs. Teams also have more film of the three rookies so why doesn’t this argument get used against the other three? Let’s not forget that the 2011 Niners went to the NFC championship with Alex Smith and were only two fumbled punts from winning that game. This despite Alex completing one pass to a WR and going 1-13 on 3rd down. And in 2012, the 49ers were 6-2 in his starts before his concussion. Even if Kaepernick were to regress and not be as electric as he was last season, he is still a more talented Quarterback than Alex was at his best, which will still open up the offense. So a regressed Kaeperinck would give the 49ers exactly the same thing they had for a year and half before he got his chance. Instead, I think Kaepernick blows people away this season and joins the ever increasing list of “elite” QB’s in the NFL.

Justin Smith about to give someone a sack lunch.

So what can we actually expect from the 49ers this season? I may be a fan and disregard all the “problems” listed above but I by no means think I am a blind “homer” and I consider myself a realist (some consider me a pessimist). The Super Bowl is the goal and is an absolute reality. They have too much talent on both sides of the ball and are deep at most positions. On offense they have the best offensive line in the NFL, a young budding superstar QB, great depth at RB, and even the “weak link” receiving corps is actually fairly good. Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald at TE with Boldin and Patton on the edges are fine by me. At midseason when you add Manningham and Crabtree into the fold, there won’t be any weakness left on offense. On defense I have no fear of regression or worry about the guys they lost. Even the poor performances they had at the end of the 2012 season were more of an aberration due to Justin Smiths injury and the pass rush disappearing. They have one of the top D-lines in the league, the absolute best LB group in the NFL (not even up for debate), and with Reid stepping in at FS and Asomugha as a 3rd DB, the secondary will be just fine. You also have to love that they have the best Coaching staff from top to bottom in the NFL.

The one reason I see them slipping even a little bit is due to the extremely tough schedule; the only downside to winning the division the year before and having to face the other division winners. They have only a few “gimme” games against crap teams and even one of those, Jacksonville, is all the way in London. Historically, that trip has not been kind to the teams participating. They play the Packers, Colts, Texans (my AFC Super Bowl pick), Saints, Redskins, and Falcons (my NFC Super Bowl pick). And that isn’t even counting the division games with two each against the excellent Seahawks, up and coming Rams, and the vastly improved Cardinals. I can easily see them only going 3-3 within their division and it would create even more pressure to perform well against the other top teams they will have to face.

Based on all of that, my prediction for the 49ers this season is to finish 10-6, 2nd in the division behind the Seahawks, and making the playoffs as the #5 or #6 seed. They will have some success winning at least one playoff game, but I think they will then unfortunately lose to the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game.

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