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The Shootists

Michael Jordan.  Air Jordan.  His Airness.  How does somebody become legend WHILE STILL PLAYING!?  Is it the 6 titles?  Is it Dunk Contest performances?  Is Mars Blackmon right?  Could it really be the shoes, Money? Whatever it is, MJ will always be the gold standard by which all players are to be judged.  No other player has spawned a catchphrase where in so many players are considered to be the next “him.”  In the era immediately following the final retirement of Jordan, we as fans have been spoon fed quite a few potential Jordans, but for the most part they have disappointing.  We like to refer to these guys as “Error Jordans.”  Grant Hill, Allen Iverson, Jerry Stackhouse, Vince Carter, Harold Minor, and Kobe Bryant (Author’s Note – we refuse to recognize one of the lamest nicknames in all of sport.  If ESPN, TNT, Nike, and Mr. Bryant are all so intent on using this nickname we will meet them halfway and refer to him as the B.M. – which speaks to what esteem we hold the self-appointed moniker) just to name a few.  No one was able to fill the stat sheet comparably to His Airness, and the only guy to win a title (5 actually) is Bryant.  Stackhouse (the obvious UNC correlation), Carter (the UNC correlation again and the dunk contest performance), and Bryant are the only true comparable players in that they were cut from similar molds – 6’5’’ or above, with the ability to jump out of the gym, great first steps, and pure scorers.  With his titles and his overall skill level, Bryant is the only guy to get close; but is he actually close?  He is clearly the guy most people would compare to MJ despite his thinly veiled attempts to distance himself from the comparison. He has even tried to establish his own persona.  Extracurricular dalliances in Colorado, and the awful B.M. aside, he still seems to remain in #23’s shadow.

We are seeing a hybridization of all positions in the Association these days, (Dirk Nowitzki, anyone?) but none more rapidly than the 2 guard position.  Is Monta Ellis really a shooting guard?  Or is he a PG?  Is Andre Iguodala a shooting guard?  Or is he a small forward?  Is Lebron James a small forward; or, is he a point guard?  For a small forward – he hasn’t seen the block since he sold his Lego’s.  Amidst the amalgam of different player styles being used in similar roles what has become of today’s shooting guard position, and who are its elite?  It’s a big question, and some of the answers we came up with are surprising – perhaps even controversial.

We began this examination of NBA efficiency with a study in PG play.  We defined the best in the league as the top 10, and the “elite” as the top 5.  We established each level using the WS48 metric, or WS per 48 minutes.  Remember the WS metric is an equation that measures the true efficiency of a player by accumulating statistics and penalizing for negative play.

WS = Points + Rebounds + Steals + (.5*Assists) + (.5*Blocks) – FG Attempts –TO’s – (.5* FT Attempts) – (.5*Personal Fouls)

The WS48 metric is calculated by taking a player’s win score and dividing it by his minutes played and multiplying that total by 48 thusly:

WS48 = 48*(WS/Minutes Played)

We took the last three years AWS48 (to take longevity into account – one great season does not an elite make), and established who the “Elite” PGs truly are.

The first hurdle we came across was a question about whether or not this metric fit this position.  The very essence of the shooting guard position is right in the name.  It is his job to shoot the basketball.  This metric penalizes for shots attempted, and also measures contribution through a player’s floor game.

After much work in the brain lab, we decided that the league’s structure around pure athletes who are not always defined by a single position forces a scenario where a player’s true value is increasingly dependent on OVERALL productivity – utilizing the skills and talent around them to win a team game.  Long gone are the days of isolation plays being the key to a win.  Illegal defense is gone (we hope Defensive 3 seconds is soon to follow) which has highlighted the need for overall team play, and has forced teams to move away from the iso offense.  The actuality is that overall team play has never left, with or without illegal defense.  Case in point, there have been 7 champs in 20 years (Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Bulls, Rockets, Pistons, Heat), and all of those teams were not necessarily centered on one guy.  Even Michael needed Scotty.  They needed Horace Grant to get them past the Pistons, and then needed Rodman to get them past the Knicks.  B.M. needed Shaq, and then Gasol, Odom, and Bynum to get over the hump again.  Teams centered on one player don’t win.  Allen Iverson in Philly, LeBron in Cleveland, Dwight Howard in Orlando, Clyde Drexler in Portland are all great examples.  Clyde eventually left to go play on a loaded Rockets team.  A.I. got drunk and bounced to Europe, LeBron defecated on Cleveland and is playing second fiddle to D. Wade, and Dwight Howard is looking to Golden State.

If a TEAM is expected to win at a TEAM sport, it must be comprised of players who recognize the mismatch and feed that opportunity with the only goal being to win.  A great example is the selection of the previous 2 U.S. Olympic Teams.  2004’s team was basically a fantasy team and epically crashed and burned.  2008’s was far more thought out, players were complimentary, and the gold was brought home.  A shooting guard by name is the first backcourt scoring option, but this does not excuse him from producing at multiple levels.  Therefore, we feel the metric still works.  This brings us to the next hurdle.  Actually, let’s put up the list and let you uncover the dilemma.  Remember, we are considering the average win score over three years from players averaging over 25 minutes per game in 30 or more games (to allow for injuries) per year.  The List is below:

5) Kobe Byrant AW48 – 9.7
4) Andre Iguodala AWS48 – 9.99
3) Thabo Sephelosha AW48 – 11.87
2) Dwayne Wade AW48 – 11.87
1) Manu Ginobli AW48– 12.70

Did you see it?

Thabo.  Freakin’. Sephelosha.

It makes us laugh to even type it.  Is Thabo Sephelosha a better shooting guard than the mighty B.M? Of course not. Furthermore, does Ginobli really rank as the best SG in the league?  No.  He will; however receive MVP votes this year.

There are a few things to consider.  Thabo is averaging the lowest minutes per game out of anyone in the top ten.  He also has the fewest FGA’s & FTA’s and also has the fewest TO’s.  He doesn’t do anything to hurt his team; and, in a league where “Volume Scorers” are glorified by Sportscenter for their scoring totals despite horrible shot selection, should his production be discounted?

Should a player get penalized for having great players around him when that is what it takes to win?  If the answer is yes, than His B.M-ness and D-Wade may fall off the list entirely, and Monta Ellis would be number one (at least a bloody all-star).

The PG position held no real surprises for us.  Then again, the position is predicated around overall production.  The shooting guard position obviously has a few surprises both in names and in rankings.  B.M. is number five?!  However, it does bring to light how a player gets his totals.  Obviously, a player who scores a ton of points should help his team.  Often times though, a scorer doesn’t help.  Carmelo Anthony took his 25 ppg and went to NY, and Denver has been playing better ever since.  If point totals were all that mattered you’d never hear a coach say,

“Kobe is going to get his, we just need to make sure we do our best to slow him down…”

It means a coach knows that scorers score and that if they can maximize how many shots that requires, they can come out ahead in the end.  This brings us back to the prodigious Sephelosha.

Obviously, OKC is misusing him.  He needs more minutes!  Seriously though, given our eventual goals of being G.M.’s (Joe Lacob – please see our current breakdown of player positions as a working interview and resume as we have no previous experience – and security would not let us in your building) we would never condone picking up Sephelosha in place of Monta Ellis.  In a position like shooting guard, there can also be scenarios different from Sephelosha’s (see above) where a team’s makeup creates precarious situations (tough shots, more minutes, limited assist opportunities, etc) for a player.  Monta Ellis is a key example.  Our stance on Dorell Wright as a point-forward (please see notes on hybridization above) has not waivered, but the fact remains that the Warriors they have been overly reliant on Ellis from the get-go.  40 minutes per game, obvious offensive scenarios (if he gets it on the right side, it’s an iso play), continued stagnant offense while Monta searches for openings are all just examples.  The chicken/egg argument still exists regarding whether or not the offense stands around because they know no pass is coming, or can Monta not pass because the offense is standing around?  5.5 APG’s suggests the latter, but despite this, the offense is far too reliant on one player to create opportunities, when other mismatches assuredly exist.  This is directly related to the coaching scheme, and should not be attributed to Ellis.  He is simply doing what he is asked.  The Warriors have playmakers being misused in a misguided and outdated Run T-M-C image.

The problem for the W’s becomes about who the better option is.  Monta comes in at #11 on the overall list, but everyone above him is either getting old, or getting paid more than the Warriors can spend as they gear up for the run at Dwight Howard.  It speaks to the glut of talent at the shooting guard position when there are 10 guys above Monta and only 2 of them are clearly better.  The top 5 list actually looks like this:

1) Dwaye Wade
2) Kobe Bryant
3) Manu Ginobli
T4) Everyone Else

There is no denying that Monta is a dynamic talent.  At this stage of the NBA evolution, he exists in a sea full of dynamic talents at his position.  It speaks to the level of athleticism currently playing in the league.  While there may not be many better than Ellis, there are plenty who are as good or close to his talent.  Most of them get paid less too.  Thanks to his monstrous ’10-’11 campaign which should get him at least 1 MVP vote, Ellis’ value has never been higher.  A trade can be made for his services.  They have to be smart and recognize that other teams would also be able to acquire similar talent for cheaper, but playing off of his performance this year will help.  Even if the W’s acquire a lock down defender (Shane Battier and a draft pick, e.g. – he could play the three and Dorell could play the 2…) they have enough talent to pick up the slack.  Curry is capable of getting 20+, and Dorell has shown over the last month his ability to do so as well (there’s 20 out of Monta’s 25/game).  The extra 5 points per game could be made up in their new ability to D up.

After much debate, it has become clear that with the Curry’s ranking at what is apparently a thin PG position in the NBA, and with Monta’s ranking amongst the superfluity of the shooting guard position, the value is in keeping Curry.  To truly take advantage of Curry’s abilities as a PG, and transition them into the talents of Wright and Lee the W’s will need someone in the backcourt who doesn’t need to score to impact the game.  A lockdown defender and someone who can rebound a bit would be of great benefit to a team built like the W’s.  Maybe a guy like Sephelosha WOULD help…

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