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2011 Gants Predictions: The Bullpen (Fear the Beards)

The bullpen is all but set at this point, except for 1 spot, so let’s get the guys who we know will be there for sure out of the way:

Brian Wilson 2010: 3-3 (74.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 48 SV, 5 BLSV, 93 K)

Brian WilsonStarting with the big guy. As of when i’m writing this, he is being evaluated for a strained oblique. This scares me. A lot. The bearded one can play through a lot, but these oblique injuries seem to mess up pitchers a ton, and tend to linger. Hopefully it’s just mild (as the giants are playing it off to be, of course), but if it isn’t, well….that sucks. It really sucks. Wilson himself is insisting it’s not bad and he’ll be ready for Opening Day, but he’s not the trainer. I think with 10 days left until opening day there’s a pretty good shot he starts off the season on the DL, which would mean one(or more) of these next few guys will need to step up their game another notch. Assuming Wilson is only out the first 2 weeks of the season, this is how I think his 2011 will go:

Prediction: 4-1 (64 IP, 2.12 ERA, 44 SV, 6 BLSV, 86 K)

Sergio Romo 2010: 5-3 (62 IP, 2.18 ERA, 21 HLD, 70 K)

The “other” beard. Probably the most likely candidate to close games if Wilson is unavailable. Romo scares me at times (see: NLCS vs Braves), but when he’s on he’s arguably the filthiest reliever in baseball (see: september/october 0 ER, 9 Holds in 14 games). Not sure if the postseason pressure got to him or what, but I believe that Romo is more the pitcher we saw during the second half of the season and he’ll cement himself as the unquestioned setup man.

Prediction: 5-2 (58 IP, 2.04 ERA, 24 HLD, 7 SV, 74 K)

Jeremy Affeldt 2010: 4-3 (50 IP, 4.14 ERA, 7 HLD, 44 K)

Last year was a bit of an off year for Jeremy. His oblique strain set him back quite a bit and seemed to take a while to recover from. I still think Sabean overpaid for him after his standout 2009 season and we’ll be looking at something in between his 2009 and 2010 numbers.

Prediction: 2-3 (52 IP, 3.12 ERA, 8 HLD, 46 K)

Santiago Casilla 2010: 7-2 (55.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 11 HLD, 56 K)

Except for a little blip after the all-star break, Casilla was money all season.He gave up 5 runs in August – October (including the postseason). Not bad for a guy that didn’t even make the opening day roster. Bringing almost a full season of big league into 2011 should do wonders for Casilla, who can hit 100 on the radar gun. The ball also just seems to have so much movement coming out of his hand, it’s ridiculous. I don’t think he could throw it straight if he tried.

Prediction: 5-1 (60 IP, 1.46 ERA, 10 HLD, 69 K)

Ramon Ramirez 2010: 1-3 (69.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 6 HLD, 46 K) w/ Giants: (27 IP, .67 ERA, 4 HLD, 15 K)

I don’t know what it is, but i don’t particularly trust Ramirez this season. It’s probably the lasting impression from the postseason where he seemed to give up runs every time he came into the game. It’s not his regular season 0.67 ERA as a Giant that’s sticking with me, it’s the 6 ER in 4 IP in October, and 5 ER in 8 innings this spring that are fresh in my mind. We’ll see, but I think Ramirez will be a bit of a dud in 2011.

Prediction: 1-4 (57 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3 HLD, 27 K)


Javier Lopez 2010: 4-2 (57.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 11 HLD, 38 K) w/ Giants: (19 IP, 1.42 ERA, 5 HLD, 16 K)

If the postseason version of Javier Lopez shows up this year, look out. He was an absolute machine. Ryan Howard still sees him in his nightmares. He’s the definition of a left handed specialist with lefties hitting .162 against him, vs .302 for the righties. We’ll see lots of one batter appearances yet again from Lopez, and he should remain relatively effective against them.

Prediction: 2-1 (43 IP, 1.64 ERA, 7 HLD, 40 K)

As for the final spot in the bullpen, It’s basically between 4 guys for the “long reliever” spot:

  • Jeff Suppan
  • Guillermo Mota
  • Ryan Vogelsong
  • Dan Runzler

Being veterans, and not having any options left give Suppan and Mota the inside track. Being a really shitty pitcher should put Suppan behind the pack quite a bit, but that “veteran presence” is always floating around in Bochy and Sabean’s minds. I would think the familiarity factor would give Mota the edge over Suppan. Vogelsong has had a fantastic spring, and has a special place in my heart for helping the Giants acquire Jason Schmidt back in the day. He’s already stated that he came back to SF to remain in the organization, whether that’s with the big league club or Fresno. I see him starting in Fresno and being the #1 option if one of our starters goes on the shelf for a few starts. Runzler is still a work in progress and it seems like the organization is still on the way to converting him to a starter. Maybe being a long reliever could be a good transition? It’s a possibility, but it’s rare to see a club carry 3 lefties in their bullpen.

My rank for making the Opening Day roster:

  1. Mota
  2. Runzler
  3. Suppan
  4. Vogelsong

2011 Opening Day Bullpen:

  • Guillermo Mota
  • Ramon Ramirez
  • Javier Lopez
  • Santiago Casilla
  • Jeremy Affeldt
  • Sergio Romo
  • Brian Wilson

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