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Sunday Forecast

This Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers (13-3) will face the New York Giants (9-7) in what promises to be a salty match-up. The Niners are in the NFC Championship game for the first time since 1997. If last weekend’s game against the Saints is any kind of indicator, the ‘Stick should be rocking. 

We all know that the games are played on grass or turf, but that hasn’t ever stopped anyone, including myself, from looking at the match-ups on paper. Afterall, examining these match-ups gives us something to talk about at the water cooler (or on Facebook or Twitter).

The 49ers Offense vs. The Giants Defense:

The biggest knock on the 49ers this season, and really for the last 7 seasons, has been the offense. Everybody had a chance to take shots at Alex Smith, and most people didn’t pass up the opportunity. This season, yardage-wise, the 49ers haven’t been much better than in recent history. During the regular season, the Niners ranked 26th in offensive yardage (310.9) and 29th in passing yards (183.1). The Niners’ forte on offense is the rushing attack which ranked 8th in the league with 127.8 yards per game.

The Giants defense is about what the Niners offense is: below league average. The Giants ranked 27th in total yards allowed (376.4), 29th in passing yards allowed (255.1), and 19th in rushing yards allowed (121.2). Where the Giants defense excels is on the defensive line. The defensive ends are fast, athletic, and rangy. Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul can flat get after the quarterback with their speed-rush ability.

The Giants Offense vs. The 49ers Defense:

The Giants’ strength is their offense. Let’s face it, when your quarterback’s last name is Manning and he has receivers like Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, why would it not be? The Giants ranked 8th in the league in total yards during the regular season (385.1) and 5th in passing yardage at 295.9 yards per game. It’s a really good passing attack. And that’s about all the Giants have, as they rank dead last in the league in rushing (32nd, 89.2 ypg). This year, Ahmad Bradshaw, D.J. Ware, and Brandon Jacobs just haven’t gotten it done. It’s well beyond my ability to fathom how a team with Brandon Jacobs at RB (all 6’4″, 264 lbs of him) can finish dead last in the league in rush yards per game. Wow.

If the Giants’ strength is their offense, that makes the Niners defense their keystone. Simply put, the Niners wouldn’t be where they are without Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and co. The Niners rank 4th in total defensive yards per game (308.2), 16th in passing yards per game (230.9), and a chest-thumping 1st in rush yards per game (77.2).

Special Teams:

The Niners special teams is better. It just is. Trust me. It’s why David Akers and Andy Lee are Pro-Bowlers. If you want a better breakdown, check out the Bay Area Sports Guy’s glowing review:http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/5-reasons-why-the-49ers-coverage-teams-use-of-tony-montana-rules/
(Be sure to watch the actual music video, by the way).

Coaching:

This is the classic old-school vs. new-school match-up. Giants coach Tom Coughlin is the old guard; he runs a tight ship, and it’s been well-documented that he’s pretty rough on his players during training camp and in practice. Coughlin took over as the Giants head coach in 2004, and reached the football pinnacle in 2007. Coughlin has, as a head coach, what the 49ers Jim Harbaugh does not: playoff experience. Harbaugh is the first-year head coach for the 49ers that, frankly, doesn’t care. He defers to his players with any praise that comes the team’s way. After the 49ers clinched the Western Division, Harbaugh made a comment about how it was all done for the players who had been in SF for the long-term, players like Frank Gore, Alex Smith, and Vernon Davis. What Harbaugh lacks in NFL playoff experience, he makes up for with strategy and balls. The Alex Smith QB sweep in the divisional game against the Saints was one of the most balls-hangin’-to-the-floor displays I’ve seen. And nobody saw it coming. It was the play call of the year.

Prediction Time!

When I make predictions, the team I want to win usually loses. So I’m not going to predict the Niners winning. I’m going to tell you, my treasured reader, that I think the Niners match up favorably on… WAIT FOR IT… offense. With a chance of rain on Sunday, and rain for the few days before, I have to feel this lends itself better to the Niners offensive attack which is predicated on running the ball. The Giants strength is the pass rush, specifically speed off the edge with Tuck, Umenyiora, and Pierre-Paul. If the field is even a little bit sloppy, and slows them down just a step or two, it’ll help neutralize their strength. The same is true for the Giants’ passing game. If the field can slow the receivers down a little bit, it only stands to help.

I think the Niners match up favorably. That’s all you’ll get from me for now, and hopefully, since this is a website with aBay Area Bias, the Niners will win.

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