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Jarrod Parker: Better Lucky than Good

In his last start against the Texas Rangers, Jarrod Parker pitched the best game of his young career. He flirted with a no-hitter into the eighth inning, and finished with a stellar line of 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Definitely an impressive result for a pitcher two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery with only a handful of major league starts under his belt. The feat was even more noteworthy because of the opponent; the Rangers, to put it lightly, are no joke at the plate. They lead MLB in average, on-base percentage and slugging. In a season where most of the news about the A’s has been about territorial rights and stadiums, Parker seems to be providing an interesting story line that’s actually taking place on the field. So, exactly how excited should A’s fans be about Parker? Unfortunately, despite Parker’s great outing, there are a few reasons to be skeptical of his performance going forward.

The main reason to question Parker’s performance is the irrefutable fact that he’s been exceptionally lucky this season. Proving that fact is as easy as looking at Parker’s advanced statistics, because every single one of them show that he’s been benefiting from great fortune. For starters, Parker’s SIERA1 is about two and a half runs higher than his ERA, which means he’s been getting hitters out despite walking too many and striking out too few. So, Parker has been getting hitters out on balls they put into play, which really only works over a long period if a pitcher can consistently induce ground balls. One example of such a pitcher is the man the A’s traded to get Parker: Trevor Cahill2. Parker, though, is not a “Cahill type.” In fact, this season, Parker’s been surrendering a ton of loud contact. Hitters are tagging him for an astounding line drive rate of 25%3, which means exactly what it sounds like: when hitters make contact, which they very often do against Parker, they’re hitting a ton of line drives. It should be obvious that usually, a line drive is the type of contact least likely to result in an out. Those line drives are going to fall in for hits eventually, and when they do, the guys Parker has been walking are going to score runs. The fact that Parker has been getting so many outs on line drives is perhaps the largest indicator that he’s likely to fall back to earth in a serious way.

Enough with the stat lesson, though. Despite the fact that Parker is probably not the pitcher he’s appeared to be so far, there is some reason for optimism. Parker’s minor league career does indicate that he can strike out hitters at a slightly higher rate than he has to date. He should also see a small decrease in the number of hitters he’s walking. If both of those things happen, he won’t be hurt as badly by the increased number of hits he’s likely to surrender. And perhaps most importantly, by the end of this season, he’ll be a full three years removed from the reconstructive elbow surgery he underwent in 2009. By then, it should become clear exactly what type of pitcher Parker is going to be.

On the whole, Parker has been an effective pitcher for the A’s so far this season. He’s young, he’s pitching in a park that should help him, and his recent start should have him feeling pretty confident. It’s possible that as some of his numbers regress to where they belong, he’ll be able to draw on his increased confidence and experience to temper some of the decline. But realistically, A’s fans should savor Parker’s start against the Rangers last week, because it’s probably not going to happen again.

1. Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like its predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA focuses on things a pitcher can control: walks, strikeouts, hard vs. soft contact on balls in play. It is a far more accurate estimator of actual talent than ERA, but is handy because it is measured on the same scale. Parker’s SIERA is an awful 4.72, while his ERA is 2.40.

2. The A’s definitely won that trade, by the way, and it may not be because of Parker. Both Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook, also acquired from the Diamondbacks in the deal, have played major roles for the A’s this season.

3. Only eight pitchers who’ve thrown more than 40 innings this season have been worse than Parker at surrendering line drives.

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